Nothing excites soccer fans more than the unveiling of a marquee signing during the off-season. Savvy recruitment is essential to the successful running of a club with pundits and analysts often citing ‘poor recruitment’ as the primary reason for a team’s failings.
For many years, particularly in Europe, the hiring of playing staff was the sole responsibility of the head coach, however, there has been a seismic shift over the last decade.
Why are Transfers so Important?
The implementation of transfer windows has resulted in the majority of business taking place within a short period. In Europe, some clubs may wish to bolster their ranks and plug a few gaps in January, but most teams will look to recruit throughout the summer months. In Major League Soccer, significant recruitment will take place during the off-season, although some players may not be able to join with their employers immediately.
Although teams are often priced up on reputation and status, bookmakers will also factor any notable transfers into their ante-post betting markets. Sides who have made notable market moves are likely to see their odds contract as punters react to each announcement. Conversely, teams who sell their biggest assets often see their odds begin to drift ahead of the new season getting underway.
With many of the best betting sites now offering a range of alternative outright markets on soccer, every single transfer is likely to be heavily scrutinized by bettors who are looking to seek out some pre-season value.
Transfers also give fans something to talk about, and they can potentially inject life into a previously underperforming outfit.
The Rise of the Sporting Director
The role of the Sporting Director has become crucial to the effective day-to-day running of a modern soccer franchise. This approach began in central Europe and has slowly spilled over into the Premier League.
Frank Arnesen was one of the first high-profile sporting directors having spent time at PSV, Spurs, Chelsea and Feyenoord. As well as possessing an above-average knowledge of the game, Arnesen suggests that you should “never be afraid to hire people that are more intelligent than you” and advises future Sporting Directors to “hand over as much responsibility as possible”.
Furthermore, the Dane suggests that you shouldn’t be afraid to take risks when it comes to recruitment.
Although this structure will sound familiar to North American sports fans, European football fans are still acclimatizing to this important structural alteration.
The Transfer Committee
With the Sporting Director overseeing several departments simultaneously, many clubs, such as Liverpool, have created a ‘Transfer Committee’ that will make suggestions and liaise with the head coach to identify potential purchases.
These committees have yielded mixed results, although shared responsibility for any failings is just one of the many positives to be taken from this innovative approach to buying and selling.
Data-Driven Analysis
There was a time when a club would employ a scout to travel the length and breadth of the country in a bid to unearth hidden talent. Many teams would also have a small team of overseas scouts who would then spend several hours writing up their findings. Although this slightly archaic approach hasn’t been completely replaced, modern technology now enables recruiters to watch footage from pretty much any match of their choosing, and this often negates the requirement for arduous trips to different continents.
Data analysis vastly increases the pool of players available. This allows clubs to potentially discover undervalued assets from previously untapped leagues and competitions. Premier League duo Brighton and Brentford are two of the most notable exponents of this approach and have been using their own analytical model to highlight players who would fit the club’s ethos and perhaps most crucially, into the manager’s plans.
Each club will have a set of metrics which will be used to identify available players. Liverpool’s director of research Ian Graham has previously spoken about the ‘Goal Probability’ metric which picked out midfielder Naby Keita for his progressive passes often leading to goals for his then-employers RB Salzburg.
These stats have to be put into context and recruitment teams mustn’t put too much stock in just one or two of these metrics. Looking at the overall picture is crucial and data analysts must take into consideration the quality of the opposition, the level of competition and whether their style of play is likely to fit in with the head coach’s favoured system.
Other considerations such as calmness under pressure and the ability to motivate teammates will also be used when it comes to judging whether a player could be a suitable purchase. As well as data analytics, scouts will also ask for character references to help back up the visual evidence.
In-house data teams are a vital cog in the transfer process, and as the recruitment process continues to evolve, we are likely to see more clubs take this approach to help streamline their searches.